The Precious Metals Week in Review

Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week. 

Previous Year Comparisons

Sept. 13, 2024                                   Sept. 12, 2025                     Net Change

Gold $ 2,582.63                                 $ 3,648.83                             1066.20         41.28%

Silver $ 30.63                                     $ 42.31                                  11.68            38.13%

Platinum $ 1,001.60                           $ 1,405.09                             403.49           40.28%

Palladium $ 1,071.43                          $ 1,214.38                            142.95           13.34%

Dow 41393.85                                       45834.22                           4440.37         10.73%

1. U.S. stocks edged mostly higher on Monday as investors set their sights on inflation data later this week to provide a reality check on the chances of a jumbo interest-rate cut in September. The S&P 500 moved up nearly 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite traded roughly 0.5% higher. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%. The moves come after stocks finished last week on a down note. Wall Street is already looking ahead to key inflation reports later this week: the producer price index on Wednesday and the consumer price index on Thursday. The reports will test the markets' total conviction that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at its meeting next week. The debate now centers on how deep policymakers will cut, amid rising expectations for a bumper "catch-up" move of 50 basis points, rather than 25 basis points.

2. The world's biggest wind developer has warned of a profits slump because the British summer was too warm and calm this year. Danish firm Orsted, which has 12 wind farms in Britain which generate 7 per cent of the country's electricity, became the latest to bemoan slowing speeds amid worries over the UK's energy strategy. It said the 'primary driver' for this was the impact from the lower-than-normal offshore wind speeds' across its sites. Although it once had lofty ambitions to become the world's first renewable energy supermajor, Orsted seems to be going from one calamity to the next over the last few years. Last week, it was noted that the obsession with Net Zero was pushing electricity prices 'through the roof' in the UK.

3. The U.S. economy employed 911,000 fewer people than originally reported as of March 2025, providing stark new evidence that the labour market was downshifting long before this summer. The data covers the period from April 2024 to March 2025 and trims the average monthly jobs gains seen during this period (roughly the last 10 months of Joe Biden's presidency and the first two months of Trump's) from a monthly average of 147,000 to about 71,000. Data had previously suggested the economy added about 1.76 million jobs in that 12-month span. The new total is less than half that, marking another larger-than-average downward revision that immediately provided fuel for critics of the government's data collection process.

4. U.S. producer prices fell unexpectedly last month, dropping 0.1% from July. The Labour Department reported Wednesday that its producer price index, which captures inflation in the supply chain before it hits consumers, showed that wholesale inflation decelerated in August after advancing 0.7% in July. Wholesale services prices fell 0.2% from July on smaller profit margins at retailers and wholesalers, which might be a sign that those companies are absorbing the cost of sweeping taxes on imports. The numbers were lower than economists had forecasted. Compared to a year earlier, producer prices rose 2.6%.

5. In the week ending September 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 263,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the highest level for initial claims since October 23, 2021, when it was 268,000. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 237,000 to 236,000. The 4-week moving average was 240,500, an increase of 9,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 231,000 to 230,750.

6. The light sweet crude oil market has rallied a bit during the week but struggled near the $64 level. This is a market that’s been going sideways for a while, and it looks like we are paying close attention to the $60 level, extending all the way to the $62 level for significant support. Brent markets look very much the same, although the support level in Brent is clearly the $65 level. The $70 level above offers significant resistance and this too, it looks like a market that probably goes sideways for a while. I do think we’re trying to find some type of bottom.

7. EUR/USD continues to trade in a tight range above 1.1700 in the American session on Friday. The disappointing UOM Consumer Sentiment Index data from the U.S. limits the dollar's gains and helps the pair hold its ground heading into the weekend.

8. The U.S. Dollar is regaining lost ground against a broadly weaker Japanese Yen on Friday. Market concerns about the political uncertainty in Japan are weighing on the JPY, pushing the pair to 187.90. From a longer perspective, however, the pair has kept trading sideways roughly between 146.00 and 149.00 since early August.

A safe haven asset that's doubled in value in the past three years, draws more investors while geopolitics becomes more turbulent, and keeps getting its analyst price targets raised as the Fed prepares to smash the rate cut button. That might sound like a crypto sales pitch. But it's gold. By the numbers, the precious metal is shimmering. Gold prices are up more than 40% this year, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 10% gain. Even bitcoin, which has enjoyed a record-setting year thanks to the Trump administration's embrace, has been left in the yellow-speckled dust with a mere 20% gain. Unlike the stock market and its rising tides, there are people on the other end of this trade. Gold's rise also serves as a barometer of the economic mood — and not in a good way. Many of the factors lifting gold prices would be considered disconcerting outside of the context of an appreciating asset. Gold's identity and benefit as a store of value are intertwined with financial turmoil. People, governments, and institutions don't normally seek refuge when things are going well, and typically, when they do, they are competing with the U.S. dollar and various iterations of longer-term bonds.

Inflation edged higher in August, government data showed Thursday, as investors looked for signs of how much tariffs are filtering into consumer prices and what that means for how aggressively the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. The latest data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index increased 2.9% annually in August, a rise from July's 2.7% increase and on par with economist's expectations. Month over month, prices rose 0.4%, an uptick from July's 0.2% increase and higher than economists' expectations of a 0.3% monthly gain. The rise was driven by stickier gasoline prices and firmer food inflation.

U.S. consumer sentiment continued to slide in September as Americans worried about their jobs and inflation. The University of Michigan’s preliminary Survey of Consumers showed that overall sentiment dropped to 55.4 in September, a 4.8% decline from August’s reading of 58.2 and the lowest reading since May. The headline consumer sentiment index is down by 21% from a year ago. “Consumers continue to note multiple vulnerabilities in the economy, with rising risks to business conditions, labour markets, and inflation,” Joanne Hsu, director of the survey of consumers, said in a statement.

Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since last October, and people took notice—applications for home loans surged last week. According to Mortgage Bankers Association data, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined for a second week, falling to 6.49% in the week ending Sept. 5. The decline sent signals to borrowers, who applied for 9% more mortgages than the previous week. "The downward rate movement spurred the strongest week of borrower demand since 2022, with both purchase and refinance applications moving higher,” said Joel Kan, MBA deputy chief economist. Applications for home purchases reached their highest levels since July and were 20% above last year’s levels. Meanwhile, homeowners took advantage of the dip in rates to refinance their existing mortgage, sending those levels higher by 12% compared with the prior week.

Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.

Trading Department – GCILBullion.

This is not a solicitation to purchase or sell.