Precious Metals Week in Review 11/03/2026

1. The year’s second fiscal quarter is officially underway, and Big Tech is already facing a number of major challenges. There’s the question about when companies will start to see significant returns on the massive sums they’re spending on AI data centers. The major hyperscalers, Amazon, Google; and Microsoft, and Meta are set to spend $650 billion in 2026 on capital expenditures, with the vast majority of that going toward building AI data centers and developing AI models. That massive cost has repeatedly spooked investors since the companies began their enormous construction efforts and will likely keep them second-guessing Big Tech’s strategy until money starts pouring into coffers. The major players in the space aren’t going anywhere anytime soon, but how and where they allocate their spending is something Wall Street will return to again and again for some time.
   
   
2. Gold and silver prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading this week, supported by some chart-based buying interest from the speculators, as well as some mild safe-haven demand amid the Middle East war. June gold was last up $34.30 at $4,317.70. May silver prices were up $0.476 at $73.41. Technically, April gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,300.00. May silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $80.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of $61.21.
   
   
3. The all-important spring housing market is well underway, but expectations are falling short due to the war in Iran and its impact on both the U.S. economy and consumer sentiment. Mortgage rates, which were previously forecast to be far lower this spring than last, are now much higher, and concerns over employment and inflation are throwing cold water on pent-up homebuyer demand. Buyers in the first quarter of this year were more concerned about the economy and mortgage rates than they were about home prices, according to real estate agents who participated in the quarterly survey. “They’re fearful of the war, they’re fearful of gas prices, for their job security,” said Faith Harmer, an agent in the Las Vegas metropolitan area. This should come as no surprise, as the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit a low of 5.99% the day before the Iran war started and then began to climb. It’s now hovering around 6.5%.
   
   
4. The dollar fell against all its major peers as a two-week ceasefire deal between Iran and the U.S. sent oil prices plunging and undermined demand for one of the conflict’s most prominent haven trades. The greenback slid as much as 1% to a four-week low as the agreement pushed crude futures sharply lower. Treasury yields slid, further reducing support for the currency, as money markets revived their wagers on an interest-rate cut this year. The dollar has now ceded more than half of its gains since the war started. On Wednesday, it weakened the most against risk-sensitive counterparts such as the South African rand and the Swedish Krona, each of which gained roughly 2%. Options markets also reflected the shift in sentiment, with traders rushing to unwind bets on dollar strength. While the dollar-bullish bias still remains, that skew has eased to its least bullish level in a month.
   
   
5. In the week ending April 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 202,000 to 203,000. The 4-week moving average was 209,500, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 207,750 to 208,000.
   
   
6. Oil prices plummeted and stocks surged Wednesday after US President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, spurring hopes that more oil tankers would soon be able to transit the key Strait of Hormuz. WTI, the US crude benchmark, tumbled almost 16% to $95 a barrel – still well above the $67 level it settled at on February 27, before the war began. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, dropped 14% to $93.8 a barrel.
   
   
7. The Euro has been very bullish this past week, as the ceasefire announcement, of course, sent risk appetite through the ceiling. The 1.18 level above is an area that I think will continue to be a bit of a resistance barrier and perhaps a potential target. If we pull back from here, the 1.17 level followed by the 1.16 level both could offer support. At that point, you should pay attention to the rates in the USA.
   
   
8. USD/JPY trades with a positive bias near 159.00 in Asia on Friday, as economic concerns stemming from tensions around the Strait of Hormuz undermine the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, the Fed's higher-for-longer outlook offers some support to the US Dollar and the currency pair. Traders, however, seem reluctant and opt to wait for Friday's release of the latest US consumer inflation data and the US-Iran negotiations before positioning for a firm near-term direction.

A dated reading on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed prices remained elevated before the war in Iran broke out, reinforcing that the central bank will remain on hold. Inflation for the month of February as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index rose 2.8%. On a “core” basis, excluding volatile food and energy prices, inflation clocked in at 3%. Both were in line with expectations. Inflation remained at a full percentage point above the Fed’s 2% inflation goal before oil prices spiked in response to the conflict.

Mortgage applications are falling, and weeks of rising rates are likely to blame. Combined refinancing and purchase mortgage applications were down 0.8% through Friday. Lower refinancing activity was responsible for the bulk of that drop, falling 3% from a week earlier and trending 4% lower than a year ago. In the last month, mortgage rates rose from multiyear lows of below 6% to around 6.5%. That jump has closed the refinancing window for some borrowers. The MBA estimated that 30-year conventional mortgage rates averaged 6.51% last week, down slightly from 6.57% a week earlier but still high enough to give potential borrowers pause.

Consumer sentiment plummeted to its lowest level on record due to frustration with price spikes from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey released Friday showed that sentiment declined 11% early this month to a reading of 47.6, lower than anything seen in the post-World War II era, including during the Great Recession, the pandemic downturn and the historic inflation surge afterward. Bouts of pessimism in recent years did not translate into weaker spending, such as during the post-pandemic inflation surge and last year’s tariff spree. And that may remain the case this time around, so long as the US labour market does not deteriorate, economists say. While average job growth over the past three months, smoothing out large monthly swings, remains weak; unemployment also remains historically low, at 4.3%. New applications for unemployment benefits also show that companies are holding on to their workers.

Volatility should be expected to remain high as investors will be closely watching for hints on the upcoming monetary policy direction. Many investors have redoubled their efforts to ensure that their portfolios are sufficiently diversified in the hope that they will be able to withstand corrections in multiple market sectors. Many of these investors have included physical precious metals as part of their diversification plans, given their long history as a hedge against both inflation and during times of economic turmoil. Remember, the key to profitability through the ownership of physical precious metals is to own the physical product and hold it for the long term. Always remember that you should never overextend your ability to maintain ownership of your precious metals over the long run.

Trading Department – GCILBullion.