The Precious Metals Week in Review

04/05/2025 

Here are your Short-Term Support and Resistance Levels for the upcoming week. 

                                          Gold                                       Silver 

Support                             3219/3119/2979                     32.20/31.33/30.58 

Resistance                         3458/3599/3698                    33.83/34.58/35.45 

                                          Platinum                               Palladium 

Support                             954/937/923                         929/909/890 

Resistance                         985/1000/1017                     967/987/1006 

 1          Stocks turned lower on Monday to begin a big week of heavyweight earnings reports and macroeconomic data that will continue to paint an early picture of the U.S. economy's response to tariffs. The S&P 500 fell 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell over 1.2%, led by Big Tech declines, as shares of AI chipmaker Nvidia stumbled over concerns of Chinese competition. Meanwhile, gold was up 1.52% at $3,348.40 as safe-haven buyers came into focus. Wall Street was coming off a rebounding run last week, with the S&P 500 notching its longest daily positive streak since January. Earnings are the highlight of the week ahead, with 180 S&P 500 companies expected to report quarterly financial results. Broader economic news will flavour the coming days, as investors eye Wednesday's release of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) index, to see the impact of tariffs on the general public's "core" expenses.  

 2        New data from the Bureau of Labour Statistics showed 7.19 million jobs opened at the end of March, a decrease from the 7.48 million seen in February. Job openings in March hit their lowest level since September 2024 and were near levels not seen since December 2020. The March JOLTS report showed some cooling of labour-market conditions, but it wasn't weak enough to bring forward our rate-cut expectations from the Federal Reserve. The Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) also showed that 5.4 million hires were made during the month, up slightly from the 5.37 million made during February. The hiring rate held flat at 3.4%. Also in Tuesday's report, the quit rate, a sign of confidence among workers, moved up slightly to 2.1% down from 2%. Both the hiring and quits rates are hovering near decade lows. The hiring rate remains stuck at relatively low levels, which is usually consistent with a higher level of unemployment, but a low pace of layoffs is holding down the unemployment rate for now.  

3        U.S. consumer spending increased solidly in March as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles to avoid higher prices and shortages due to tariffs. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, surged 0.7% last month after an upwardly revised 0.5% gain in February, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Wednesday. Economists had forecast consumer spending would rise 0.5% after a previously reported 0.4% increase in February. The data was included in the advance gross domestic product report for the first quarter that was published earlier on Wednesday, which showed GDP contracted at a 0.3% annualized rate last quarter, weighed down by a record surge in imports. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index was unchanged in March after advancing 0.4% in February. In the 12 months through March, PCE prices increased 2.3% after rising 2.7% in February. Stripping out the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index was also unchanged. That followed a 0.5% gain in the so-called core PCE inflation in February. In the 12 months through March, core inflation increased 2.6% after advancing 3.0% in February. 

 4       Consumer confidence fell for the fifth straight month in April, dropping to its lowest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for April came in at a reading of 86, a significant drop from March's revised 92.9 reading and short of the 88-reading expected by economists. The "Present Situation Index," which measures consumers' assessment of current business and Labour market conditions, fell to 133.5 in April from 134.5 in March. The "Expectations Index," which tracks consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and Labour market conditions, also fell to 54.4 in April from 65.2 last month. This was the lowest level since October 2011. Historically, a reading below 80 in that category signals a recession in the coming year.

5       Seven of the eight biggest publicly traded crypto miners that are based in the U.S. are expected to post a loss when they report first-quarter results. The financial struggles come even after Bitcoin reached a record above $109,000 in January, and its price in the quarter averaged about 75% higher than it was in the first quarter of 2024. Increased competition and tariffs weighed on the companies, which saw a compression in profit margins and growing uncertainty around expanding operations. Adjusted net income for the eight U.S. miners fell by almost $1.3 billion in the first quarter from the same period in the previous year. The group collectively is estimated to have swung to a loss of $190 million, versus adjusted net income of $1.1 billion in the first quarter of 2024. Growth in international mining operations, including those from Russia and China, have also intensified the competition, said Ethan Vera, chief operating officer at crypto mining services provider Luxor Technology.  

 6       Weekly claims for unemployment benefits hit their highest level in two months during the final full week of April while the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance on an ongoing basis reached the highest level since November 2021 as the Labour market continues to show signs of slowing. Data from the Department of Labour released Thursday morning showed 241,000 initial jobless claims were filed in the week ending April 26, up from 223,000 the week prior and well above economists' expectations for 223,000. 

 7       Crude oil prices staged a rebound earlier today on reports that China had signalled it wants to negotiate with the Trump administration on tariffs. The country’s commerce ministry said it was considering a proposal made by Washington to discuss the tariffs. Even this slim chance of a de-escalation in the tariff war energized oil traders, leading to Brent crude rising to $62.53 per barrel at the time of writing, with West Texas Intermediate at $59.67 per barrel. Despite the rise, both benchmarks are set to end the week lower than they started as tariff anxiety continues to rule markets. 

 8       The EUR/USD pair extended higher on Friday, pushing into the 1.1400 zone after the European session, as buyers retained control over the broader trend. Despite the advance, the underlying momentum remains uncertain, with mixed signals from short-term indicators. The broader technical structure, however, remains constructive, supported by the firm positioning of major moving averages that continue to trend upward. 

 9       The USD/JPY pair faces selling pressure after a three-day recovery move around 146.00, earlier in the day, and corrects to near 144.50 during European trading hours on Friday. The pair retraces as the U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, gives up Thursday’s gains and slides to near 99.65.  

The U.S. jobs market just pulled off another surprise — and Wall Street took notice. Employers added 177,000 jobs in April, blowing past analyst predictions of 135,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 percent, easing fears that tariffs and sweeping federal job cuts had already begun to erode the workforce. It's the second month in a row that job growth has outpaced predictions: payrolls increased by 228,000 in March. April's jobs numbers also extended a historic streak, according to the Bureau of Labour Statistics. The U.S. has now added jobs for 52 consecutive months, the second longest streak in American history. It's been over four years of continued job growth. The last time the U.S. recorded job losses across the economy was in early 2021, when employers were still grappling with rampant Covid infections before mass vaccination campaigns. 

 A closely watched inflation gauge cooled last month in a sign that prices were steadily easing. At the same time, consumers accelerated their spending, particularly on cars, likely in an effort to get ahead of the duties. Wednesday’s report from the Commerce Department showed that consumer prices rose just 2.3% in March from a year earlier, down from 2.7% in February. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 2.6% compared with a year ago, below February’s 3%. Economists track core prices because they typically provide a better read on where inflation is headed. Spending on restaurants and hotels also jumped after falling in February, a sign Americans are still willing to splurge a little on travel and dining out. The spending increase is noteworthy because consumer confidence surveys have plunged for several months, suggesting Americans have grown increasingly worried about the economy. Yet so far, that hasn't translated into a noticeable slowdown in spending. 

 Home contract signings rose more than expected in March as mortgage rates hovered around their lowest point this year. The Pending Home Sales Index, which tracks contract signings on existing homes, jumped 6.1% from February, according to the National Association of Realtors. It’s the biggest month-over-month increase since late 2023. March’s index reading was 76.5, down 0.6% from a year earlier. Pending home sales soared 9.8% in the South from a month earlier and gained nearly 5% in the Midwest and the West. Mortgage rates hit year-to-date lows in March and held largely stable between 6.6% and 6.7%. Inventory levels have also been on the rise, giving would-be homebuyers more choices.